Oil Falls as Focus Shifts to All That Output OPEC Can't Control

Nigeria's crude oil output rose by 274000 barrels per day in April – OPEC

Excluding Alaska and Hawaii, it said output from the other 48 states would expand by 390,000 bpd from May 2017 to December 2017 assuming a USA light crude price of $50.

However, the OPEC report also noted that the cartel expects non-OPEC oil supplies to rise by 950,000 barrels a day this year, an upgrade from last month's forecast.

In its monthly report OPEC urged sustained cooperation for the greater good, saying that continued rebalancing in the oil market by year-end will require the collective efforts of all oil producers to increase market stability, "not only for the benefit of the individual countries, but also for the general prosperity of the world economy".

The oil market has not seen the destocking that it expected for the first half of 2017, Vitol executive committee member Chris Bake said on Thursday.

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US crude production has risen more than 10 per cent since its mid-2016 trough to more than 9.3 million bpd, close to the levels of top producers Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia.

The head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie told the Platts London conference that the market is heading towards a supply deficit and he sees stronger prices in the long term.

OPEC de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is increasingly unable to control the global oil supply because of rising energy production in the U.S., Russian Federation and Iran.

"As such, it is likely to extend its production cuts by the minimum amount of time necessary to bring stocks down to more normal levels", he noted.

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US drillers added oil rigs for the 17th week in a row, according to data from Baker Hughes on Friday. But it's still down 11 percent for the year after a rout last week brought prices back to where they were before OPEC's deal at the end of November.

"The advantage in OPEC and companies believing that a future fix will come from higher prices is that they don't have to contemplate too heavily the other side of the profitability equation, their own cost-base", the analysts wrote.

Nigeria's crude oil production rose by 274,000 barrels per day in April, the biggest increase it has witnessed among its peers in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Reports from the Energy Information Administration showed that US stockpiles were down almost 5.2 million barrels, a huge difference from the 1.8 million barrels expected. The U.S. did not join its agreement, and the number of rigs in operation there has doubled over the past year. For a while, the strategy appeared to be working, with prices drifting north of $54 earlier this year.

US output, excluding Alaska, would expand by 390,000 bpd from May 2017 to December 2017, assuming a USA light crude price of $50, they said.

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USA shale producers used the price spike that OPEC triggered earlier this year to lock-in revenues for 2017, 2018 and, in some cases, even 2019.

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